Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 04/2024

Germany

Leading indicators for the German economy still fail to point to any improvement in the state of the economy. Although the ifo Business Climate Index is up for the second time in a row, it remains at a low level. The sentix Economic Index also picked up again, but remains clearly in negative territory. The same applies to the Economic Sentiment Indicator. The Purchasing Managers’ Indices are showing mixed trends. The index for industry fell again and, at 41.9 points, is well below the growth threshold of 50 points. The index for services, on the other hand, rose to 50.1 points while truck mileage traveled declined slightly, according to toll statistics. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment also shows a further improvement and is clearly in positive territory.

Eurozone

Most leading indicators for the Eurozone suggest a moderate upswing. This applies in particu-lar to the sentix Economic Index. Expectations were even marginally positive again in April, whereas the assessment of the current economic situation as well as the overall index have remained below the zero line. The OECD leading indicator for major European economies has improved marginally. The same can be said of the Economic Sentiment Indicator, although it is still slightly lower than its long-term average. The Purchasing Managers’ Indices are show-ing mixed trends. The index for the industry fell and, at 46.1 points, is below the growth threshold of 50 points. The index for services, on the other hand, rose to 51.1 points. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment also recorded an improvement and is clearly in positive territory.

World Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy are showing a moderate upward trend. Both the OECD leading indicator for the G20 and the Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy have continued to improve and are above their long-term average. The sentix Eco-nomic Index has also seen a further rise and is well above the zero line. This applies to both the assessment of the situation and to expectations. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the industry also showed an improvement and, at 50.3 points, is slightly above the growth threshold for the first time in 18 months. The Container Throughput index is also showing an upward trend, although global trade has not yet mirrored this positive development. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, fell again recently.