Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 02/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy have stabilized at a low level. The ifo business climate has remained unchanged. A slightly deteriorated assessment of the situation was offset by slightly better expectations. Regarding the sentix economic index, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations rose, but both components are still negative on balance. The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing improved to 46.1 points, but remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index is above this, but fell slightly to 52.0 points. The Economic Sentiment Indicator recovered at a very low level, while the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose more significantly. Truck mileage was slightly increased according to toll statistics.

Eurozone

Most leading indicators for the Eurozone are recovering, but many are still at a low level. The purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing industry rose to 47.3 points, but remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index, on the other hand, fell to 50.7 points. The Economic Sentiment Index largely made up for its year-end decline. In the case of sentix economic index, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations improved, which even climbed slightly into positive territory. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index also increased. The OECD leading indicator continued its recovery at a slower pace.

Global Economy

Most leading indicators for the global economy are continuing their recovery. Both the Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy and the OECD leading indicator for the G-20 improved. The purchasing managers' index for global manufacturing industry also continued to rise and, at 49.9 points, effectively reached the growth threshold. The sentix economic index also improved, with both the assessment of the current situation and expectations in positive territory. Regarding the freight indices, the Baltic Dry Index recovered somewhat, while the RWI Container Throughput Index fell significantly.