Economic-Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 02/2026

Germany: Leading indicators do not yet indicate an upturn

The leading indicators for the German economy have continued to stabilize, but there are no signs of an upward movement yet. The ifo Business Climate stagnated at the beginning of the year. While the assessment of the situation was slightly better, expectations fell again. The purchasing managers' indices improved, but the index for industry remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The Economic Sentiment Index fell again minimally, and truck mileage also decreased again, according to toll statistics. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index also fell slightly, albeit at a high level. The sentix economic index was able to improve further, but remains slightly in negative territory due to the still very poor current assessment of the situation.

Eurozone: Differentiated development of leading indicators

The leading indicators for the eurozone have not developed uniformly recently. The purchasing managers' index for industry improved but is still just below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index is above, but recently fell again. Economic sentiment also declined somewhat. The same applies to the ZEW Economic Expectations Index, which is however at a high level. In contrast, the OECD leading indicator continued its rise. The sentix economic index also improved further and is now slightly in positive territory thanks to the expectations. The current situation is still assessed negatively on balance.

Global economy: Leading indicators are trending upwards

The leading indicators for the global economy are mostly pointing upwards. The Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy continued its recovery, as did the OECD leading indicator. The sentix economic index also improved again, with both the current assessment of the situation and expectations in positive territory. The purchasing managers' indices also improved again, with both the industrial index and the services index above the growth threshold of 50 points. The RWI Container Throughput Index has also risen recently. The Baltic Dry Index initially recovered and then stagnated at a moderate level.