Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 05/2025

Germany

Due to US tariff policy, some leading indicators for the German economy have fallen, in some cases sharply. This applies to the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, which fell back into negative territory. The sentix economic index has also declined significantly, which was mainly due to expectations, which are now also negative on balance. The purchasing managers' index for industry also fell again to 48.0 points and thus remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index has also fallen below this threshold to 48.8 points. The ifo business climate rose slightly thanks to a better assessment of the situation, but expectations declined. The Economic Sentiment indicator improved slightly at a low level, and truck mileage also increased slightly again, according to toll statistics.

Eurozone

Most leading indicators for the Eurozone are also pointing downwards again in the course of US tariff policy. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in particular fell sharply. The sentix economic index has also fallen significantly, with both the situation and expectations indices now back in negative territory. The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing industry rose minimally by 0.1 points to 48.7 points, but remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index declined and is now just below this threshold at 49.7 points. The Economic Sentiment Index also declined. The OECD leading indicator, on the other hand, was able to improve.

Global Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy are developing in a differentiated way, but the general recovery has stopped for the moment. The Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy fell slightly, as did the purchasing managers' index for global industry, which fell by 0.2 points just below the growth threshold to 49.8 points. The sentix economic index fell sharply. Both the current assessment of the situation and expectations are negative again on balance. The OECD leading indicator for the G-20, on the other hand, has continued to improve. The Baltic Dry Index fell significantly in the meantime, but has recently been able to recover somewhat. The RWI Container Throughput Index declined.