Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 08/2024

Germany

After appearing to recover for a while, the leading indicators for the Germany economy have declined again recently. The ifo business climate showed both the current assessment of the economic situation and expectactions to be worse than in previous months. The sentix Economic Index also saw a decline in all components, these now being clearly in negative territory. Also the Purchaing Managers’ Indices are again trending downwards with the Services Index still remaining above the growth threshold. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index also fell recently – although from a high level. The Economic Sentiment indicator has been stable, but remains at a very low level. According to toll statistics, there was also no positive momentum seen in truck mileage traveled.

Eurozone

Many leading indicators for the Eurozone were also on the decline again recently. The sentix Economic Index showed both the current situation assessment and expectations to have fallen noticeably which are now well below the zero line. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the services sector also yielded, although it still remains above the growth threshold. The index for the industry is significantly below the threshold and has remained unchanged. ZEW economic expectations have also declined, albeit from a relatively high level. On the other hand, the OECD leading indicator for the major European economies continued its rebound and is now slightly above its long-term average. The Economic Sentiment Indicator remains largely unchanged, but still at a below-average level.

Global economy

The leading indicators for the global economy, which have recently been trending upwards, are also falling again. While the Bundesbank leading indicator for the global economy is seeing further improvement, the pace is slowing down. A similar picture applies to the OECD composite leading indicator. The sentix Economic Index, on the other hand, has fallen and is again hovering in negative territory. This applies to both the assessment of the current situation and to expectations. Also the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the industry declined further and is now well below the growth threshold of 50 points. The Container Throughput Index also decreased recently, although global trade has not mirrored this trend for some time now. The Baltic Dry Index is also pointing downwards.