Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 09/2024

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy are pointing downwards across the board. The ifo business climate showed both the current assessment of the economic situation and expectactions to be worse than in the previous month. The same is true for the sentix Economic Index where all components have also fallen deeper into negative territory. Also the purchasing managers' indices are again trending downwards with the Services Index still remaining above the growth threshold at 51.0 points, while the Industrial Index dropped to 42.4 points. The ZEW economic expectations have plunged recently. The Economic Sentiment Indicator also fell. According to toll statistics, truck mileage is weakening as well.

Eurozone

The leading indicators for the Eurozone are performing in a slightly more differentiated manner, but remain very weak overall. The sentix Economic Index showed the current situation assessment to be noticeably worse than in the previous month, expectations recovered slightly but remained negative. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the services sector picked up slightly, while the index for industry remained unchanged at the very low level of 45.8 points. ZEW economic expectations have dropped significantly. While remaining at a below-average level, the Economic Sentiment Indicator improved slightly. There is no current data available for the OECD leading indicator for the major European countries.

Global economy

The leading indicators for the global economy have shown mixed trends recently. The Bundesbank leading indicator for the global economy slipped again. Also the Purchasing Managers' Index for global industry declined slightly and remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The sentix Economic Index is up marginally thanks to somewhat better expectations, but remains negative overall. The assessment of the current situation has also deteriorated further. The Container Throughput Index has gone up a little, although global trade is growing at a considerably slower pace. The Baltic Dry Index has also edged up recently. No current data is available for the OECD leading indicator.