Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 10/2024

Germany

Many leading indicators for the German economy continue to point downwards. The ifo business climate has fallen for the fourth time in a row, and both the assessment of the current situation and the expectations have deteriorated. The Economic Sentiment Indicator also fell. The purchasing managers' indices however could slightly improve. While the services index is listed at 51.4 points, the index for the industry remains with 42.6 points significantly below the growth threshold of 50 points. The ZEW economic expectations index stabilised after significant declines. The sentix Economic Index also recovered slightly, but all components remain deep in the negative territory. According to toll statistics, lorry mileage continued to weaken.

Eurozone

The leading indicators for the Eurozone are developing in a more differentiated manner, but also remain weak overall. All components of the sentix Economic Index are in negative territory. While expectations continued to recover, the current situation assessment was again rated worse than in the previous month. The Purchasing Managers' Index for the industry improved slightly, but remains with 45.9 points below the growth threshold. The index for the service sector lost 0.2 to 51.2 points. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index also improved again slightly following the sharp decline. The Economic Sentiment Indicator is moving sideways at a below-average level. By contrast, the OECD leading indicator for the major European economies is pointing upwards and is slightly above the long-term average.

Global Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy continue to develop in different ways. The Bundesbank leading indicator for the global economy continued its decline. The Purchasing Managers' Index for global industry also fell slightly and remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. At the same time, the OECD leading indicator improved slightly once again. The sentix Economic Index also rose, with both the current assessment of the situation and expectations now slightly in positive territory. The RWI Container Throughput Index has risen further, but global trade is barely able to keep pace with this development. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, has recently fallen significantly.