Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 12/2024

Germany

Following a temporary stabilization, almost all leading indicators for the German economy are pointing downwards again. The ifo business climate fell again, due to significantly worse expectations. The sentix economic index also fell again, which was due to both a poorer assessment of the situation and more pessimistic expectations. The same applies to the Purchasing Managers' Index for industry, which fell to 42.5 points. The services index, on the other hand, slightly exceeded the growth threshold at 51.0 points. The ZEW economic index also recorded a slight increase. According to toll statistics, truck mileage fell again.

Eurozone

The leading indicators for the eurozone are developing in different ways. The Purchasing Managers' Index for industry remained unchanged at 45.2 points, well below the growth threshold of 50 points. By contrast, the services index climbed back above this threshold to 51.4 points. The economic sentiment indicator recovered at a low level. The ZEW economic expectations also improved slightly. The OECD leading indicator continued its recovery. In contrast, the sentix economic index fell again. Both the current situation assessment and expectations were worse than in the previous month and thus remain in negative territory.

Global Economy

Many leading indicators for the global economy are continuing their recovery, albeit mostly at a low level. So the OECD leading indicator improved again and is now slightly above its long-term average. The Purchasing Managers' Index for global industry also continued to rise, although at 49.4 points it remains just below the growth threshold of 50 points. The sentix economic index fell slightly, but both the assessment of the current situation and expectations are in positive territory. In contrast, the Bundesbank leading indicator for the global economy fell again. The Baltic Dry Index recently decreased significantly and the RWI Container Throughput Index also sank again.

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