vbw Index on Growth and Employment in Bavaria

The vbw index of the Bavarian economy on growth and employment has not changed since fall 2024. In spring 2025, it once again reached 78 points and thus remains well below the normal level of 100 points.

All sub-indices are below the normal level

There were also hardly any changes in the sub-indices compared to fall 2024. The growth situation index, which describes the general current economic situation, improved slightly by three points to 71 points. The growth forecast index also rose slightly by three points to 84 points.

The employment situation index fell by four points and now stands at 87 points, while the employment forecast index remained unchanged at 73 points. This means that all four sub-indices remain well below the normal level of 100. Economic stagnation is set to continue.

Economic bottoming out, structural problems remain

The economic situation in Bavaria remains weak. Industrial and construction output are still below the previous year's level, as are sales in the hospitality industry. In contrast, the hotel and retail sectors recorded increases in turnover. Incoming orders in industry and construction have risen recently, which suggests that the economy has bottomed out.

Home-grown structural challenges such as energy and labor costs, taxes and levies as well as bureaucracy and regulation remain unchanged. Added to this are the foreign trade distortions, particularly as a result of US President Trump's policies, which are damaging the entire global economy. An internationalized and globally networked economy like Bavaria is feeling the effects of this in particular.

The new federal government must act now

With the new federal government, there is a realistic chance of solving the home-made business location problems. The coalition agreement between the Conservatives (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) creates stability and planning security for companies. It contains many measures that will strengthen our location and stimulate growth.

It is crucial that swift and decisive action is now taken. In particular, the degressive special depreciation for investments, the measures to reduce energy prices, the reduction in bureaucracy and the flexibilization of working hours must be implemented immediately.