Study analyzes hydrogen cost for industry

Hydrogen is a key building block for climate neutral industry. However, for hydrogen to make a real contribution, security of supply and economic viability must be guaranteed.

Aim of the Study

Against this backdrop, Prognos AG has conducted a study on future hydrogen costs for industry on behalf of vbw. The study analyzes hydrogen costs under various import and production scenarios up to and including 2045 as Germany has set out to become climate neutral by 2045.

Comparison of Green and Blue Hydrogen

The study compares green hydrogen from electrolysis and blue hydrogen from natural gas with CO₂ capture. The analysis shows that blue hydrogen offers structural cost advantages in the short to medium term, primarily due to lower energy and plant costs, as well as high capacity utilization of production facilities.

As the market ramps up, green hydrogen can become significantly cheaper in the long term due to falling electricity costs, technological advances, and economies of scale. Key factors here are low electricity generation costs, high full-utilization hours, and cost degression in electrolysis.

Importing and storing hydrogen incur additional costs – regardless of the production method. The most cost-effective transport is via pipelines for distances of up to approximately 2,000 km.

Green hydrogen shows long-term potential

Green hydrogen is gaining importance in the long term, as the use of blue hydrogen after 2045 is unlikely due to climate targets. The cost ranges presented enable industrial companies to better estimate potential price developments and align their transformation paths accordingly.