Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 06/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy have recently developed inconsistently. The ifo business climate rose slightly, which was due to slightly improved expectations. The current situation, on the other hand, was rated somewhat worse. In the sentix economic index, both components increased, and expectations are now back in positive territory. The Economic Sentiment indicator also recovered, but remains at a very low level. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index rose significantly and largely compensated for the slump of the previous month. In contrast, the purchasing managers' indices declined. The index for industry fell minimally by 0.1 points to 48.3 points, while the services index fell by 1.9 points to 47.1 points. This means that both indices are below the growth threshold of 50 points. According to toll statistics, truck mileage also declined.

Eurozone

For the Eurozone, most leading indicators tend to point upwards. So, both the current assessment of the situation and expectations improved in the sentix economic index, which are positive again on balance. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index also rose noticeably and is back in positive territory. The OECD leading indicator continued its moderate upward movement, and the Economic Sentiment indicator also recovered slightly from a low level. The purchasing managers' indices developed differently. While the index for industry rose by 0.4 points to 49.4 points, the services index fell by 0.4 points to 49.7 points. This means that both indices are slightly below the growth threshold of 50 points.

Global Economy

Most leading indicators for the global economy are pointing moderately upwards. The OECD leading indicator for the G-20 countries continued its moderate recovery. The sentix economic index also rose, with both the current assessment of the situation and expectations slightly in positive territory. The two freight indices – the Baltic Dry Index and the RWI Container Throughput Index – have also risen recently. By contrast, the Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy continued to decline. The global purchasing managers' indices developed differently. The industrial index fell slightly by 0.2 points to 49.6 points and is thus still just below the growth threshold of 50 points. The service index, on the other hand, is above this at 52.0 points and in addition improved by 1.1 points compared to the previous month.