Economic-Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 06/2026

Germany

The sharp decline in leading indicators for the German economy resulting from the war in Iran has come to a halt for now, but no real recovery is in sight. In the ifo Business Climate Survey, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations improved slightly. In the sentix Economic Sentiment Index as well, expectations were somewhat less pessimistic, while the current situation was assessed as having deteriorated slightly once again. At a low level, the Economic Sentiment Indicator and the ZEW Economic Expectations Index recovered slightly. According to toll statistics, truck mileage has also risen slightly. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for industry, on the other hand, has fallen again, but remains just above the 50-point growth threshold. The Services Index improved but remains below the 50-point threshold.

Eurozone

Many leading indicators for the eurozone had also deteriorated as a result of the war in Iran, but most have not fallen further recently. For example, the Economic Sentiment Indicator stabilized, and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index improved slightly, albeit from a low level. In the sentix Economic Sentiment Index, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations have recovered; however, both remain in negative territory. The same applies to the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the services sector, which rose but remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The index for the industrial sector, on the other hand, declined but remains above the growth threshold. The OECD Leading Indicator declined again.

Global Economy

Global leading indicators are not moving in unison. While the Bundesbank’s leading indicator for the global economy continues to point slightly downward, the OECD leading indicator is continuing its upward trend. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for global manufacturing remained unchanged recently, while the services index rose slightly. Both remain above the 50-point growth threshold. The sentix economic index continued to improve. Both the current conditions and expectations are in positive territory, but still below the level seen in February before the start of the Iran war. The RWI container throughput index recently declined, as did the Baltic Dry Index.