Economic-Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 07/2026

Germany

Many leading economic indicators recovered when it seemed as if the Iran war may be coming to an end. The renewed escalation of the conflict raises concerns that indicators may deteriorate once more. According to the ifo Business Climate Index, expectations improved, but the assessment of the current situation deteriorated slightly. The Sentix Economic Index recorded an even stronger improvement, with expectations moving slightly above the zero line, but the assessment of the current situation remains very negative. The Purchasing Managers’ Indices also improved. The services index remains just below the growth threshold of 50 points. According to ZEW economic expectations rose significantly and the Economic Sentiment Indicator increased moderately. According to toll statistics, lorry mileage has declined slightly.

Eurozone

Many leading indicators for the eurozone continued their recovery for the time being. Both the manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) increased and are now above the 50-point threshold. The Economic Sentiment Indicator also continued to recover, while the ZEW Economic Expectations Index improved significantly. Within the Sentix Economic Index, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations improved, with expectations returning to positive territory. Contrastingly, the OECD Composite Leading Indicator declined once again.

Global Economy

Leading indicators for the global economy are showing mixed trends. Whilst the Bundesbank’s indicator improved somewhat, the OECD leading indicator declined slightly. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for global manufacturing also fell, while the services index continued to rise. However, both remain above the growth threshold of 50 points. The Sentix Economic Index showed a marked improvement in both current conditions and expectations, with both remaining firmly in positive territory. Meanwhile, the RWI Container Throughput Index and the Baltic Dry Index both declined in the last reporting period.