Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 08/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy are pointing moderately upwards, but a stable recovery is not yet in sight. The ifo-business climate improved minimally – so did both the assessment of the current situation and expectations. The purchasing managers' index for industry rose by only 0.1 points and, at 49.1, remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index was able to jump over this again with 50.6 points. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index also rose slightly. The Economic Sentiment Index continued its ups and downs and is trending sideways. According to toll statistics, truck mileage increased again. Regarding the sentix economic index, on the other hand, both sub-components declined again and the overall index thus remains in negative territory.

Eurozone

Most leading indicators for the eurozone also improved, but only very moderately. The purchasing managers' indices rose slightly, but at 49.8 points, the industry-index remains just below the growth threshold of 50 points, while the services index reaches 51.0 points. The Economic Sentiment indicator continues its sideways movement with slight ups and downs. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index improved again slightly, and the OECD leading indicator also continues to point upwards. In contrast, the sentix economic index fell again and is now back in negative territory. Both the current assessment of the situation and expectations declined.

Global Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy continue to develop inconsistently. The OECD leading indicator for the G-20 countries continued to rise, as did the Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy. The purchasing managers' index for the service sector also improved and, at 53.4 points, is well above the growth threshold of 50 points. The industrial index, on the other hand, fell back below this threshold at 49.7 points. The sentix economic index and its two sub-components also declined again, but remain slightly positive. The RWI Container Throughput Index remains trending slightly downwards. In contrast, the Baltic Dry Index reached an annual peak in the meantime before falling again.