Economic Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 09/2025

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy still do not indicate a real economic recovery. The ifo business climate improved, with both the assessment of the current situation and the expectations somewhat better. The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing also rose and, at 49.8 points, is now just below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index, on the other hand, declined and is also below this mark at 49.3 points. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index was able to recover somewhat after its significant decline. The Economic Sentiment Index continued its ups and downs and is trending sideways. The sentix economic index fell significantly, and both sub-components are now back in negative territory. According to toll statistics, truck mileage also fell again.

Eurozone

The leading indicators for the eurozone also do not show any sustainable improvement. At 50.7 points, the purchasing managers' index for manufacturing was able to exceed the growth threshold of 50 points for the first time in over three years. The services index, on the other hand, declined, but at 50.5 points also remains above the growth limit. The OECD leading indicator continued its recovery, the ZEW Economic Expectations Index improved slightly. In contrast, the sentix economic index fell for the second time in a row, and the expectations component is only minimally in positive territory. The Economic Sentiment indicator continues its sideways movement with slight ups and downs.

Global Economy

The leading indicators for the global economy are pointing upwards, albeit without much momentum. The OECD leading indicator for the G-20 countries rose, as did the Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy. The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing also improved and, at 50.9 points, is above the growth threshold of 50 points. The index for the service sector is even higher at 53.4 points, but fell slightly. The sentix economic index improved minimally. This is due to an increase in expectations, but at the same time a somewhat worse current assessment of the situation. The RWI Container Throughput Index increased, but the development of world trade cannot keep up. The Baltic Dry Index is also pointing upwards.