Economic-Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 09/2026

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy continue to show a moderate upward trend. The ifo Business Climate Index reached an annual high in August, with both components - expectations and the assessment of the current situation - improving. The sentix Economic Sentiment Index also saw an increase in both the assessment of the current situation and expectations, with the latter now in positive territory. Although the Purchasing Managers’ Index for German industry edged down slightly, it remains above the 50-point growth threshold at 53.8 points. The services index, by contrast, rose and now also stands above the growth threshold at 52.7 points. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index also rose, but at a significantly slower pace than previously. According to toll statistics, lorry mileage rose slightly, but industrial production has not yet managed to keep pace.

Eurozone

Leading indicators for the eurozone also showed a largely upward trend. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing remained unchanged, but at 52.7 points it remains above the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index improved, reaching 53.0 points. The OECD leading indicator rose and the Economic Sentiment indicator rose as well. The same applies to the two parts of the sentix economic index. Here, the expectations and the assessment of the current situation were rated more positively than before, although the latter remains negative on balance. By contralst, economic expectations fell slightly according to ZEW.

Global Economy

Global leading indicators are, for the most part, showing a moderate upward trend. The Bundesbank’s leading indicator for the global economy has improved. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for global manufacturing rose, as did the index for the services sector. Both are above the growth threshold of 50 points. Both components of the sentix economic indicator remains largely unchanged and are clearly in positive territory. The OECD leading indicator remains unchanged. The Baltic Dry Index dipped briefly but has recovered. By contrast, the RWI container throughput index has fallen from a high level.