Economic-Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 01/2026

Germany

The leading indicators for the German economy have recently stopped falling. The ifo business climate index stagnated at the beginning of the year. While the assessment of the current situation improved slightly, expectations declined again slightly. In the sentix economic index, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations rose, and are now slightly positive. The purchasing managers' indices also improved, but the index for industry remains below the growth threshold of 50 points. The ZEW economic expectations index continued its upward trend. According to toll statistics, truck mileage has also increased. Only the Economic Sentiment Index declined slightly, but continues to move sideways in line with the trend.

Eurozone

Most leading indicators for the eurozone are pointing moderately upward. The purchasing managers' index for industry is now just below the growth threshold of 50 points. The services index is above this level, but has recently declined slightly. The economic sentiment indicator is pointing slightly upward, and the ZEW economic expectations index has improved significantly, as has the OECD leading indicator. The sentix economic index has also risen and is now only just in negative territory.

Global Economy

Most leading indicators for the global economy are pointing upwards. The Bundesbank's leading indicator for the global economy continued its recovery, as did the OECD leading indicator. The same applies to the sentix economic index, where both the current assessment and expectations are above zero. The purchasing managers' indices have weakened slightly, but the index for industry remains just above the growth threshold of 50 points, while the services index is clearly above it. The RWI container throughput index continues to move sideways. The Baltic Dry Index fell again after a recent rise.