Economic-Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 03/2026

Germany

Since the start of the war in Iran, some leading indicators for the German economy have turned downward again. For example, the current conditions assessment in the ifo Business Climate Survey remained unchanged, but expectations declined noticeably. The same applies to the sentix Economic Sentiment Index. While the current conditions assessment recovered slightly, expectations fell sharply. The ZEW Economic Expectations Index has plummeted. In contrast, the Purchasing Managers’ Index for industry continued to improve and is above the 50-point growth threshold for the second consecutive month. The Services Index also remains above this threshold despite a decline. The Economic Sentiment Index remained largely unchanged, and truck mileage has increased slightly according to toll statistics.

Eurozone

Several leading indicators for the eurozone have also deteriorated again. In the sentix Economic Sentiment Index, both the assessment of current conditions and expectations declined. The Economic Sentiment Indicator is also pointing downward. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has fallen sharply and is now back in negative territory. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing, on the other hand, continued to improve and remains above the 50-point growth threshold. The services index declined but also remains above the 50-point threshold.

Global economy

Global leading indicators are still largely pointing upward, though some were compiled before the war in Iran started. The Bundesbank’s leading indicator for the world economy continued its recovery, as did the OECD composite leading indicator. Purchasing managers’ indices also continued to improve; both the manufacturing index and the services index are above the 50-point growth threshold. In contrast, the sentix Economic Index deteriorated. Here, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations declined. The RWI container throughput index stagnates. The Baltic Dry Index has also been moving sideways.