Economic-Outlook – Leading Indicators at a Glance 05/2026

Germany

In the wake of the war in Iran, all leading indicators for the German economy are now pointing downwards again. In the ifo Business Climate Survey, both the assessment of the current situation and expectations have deteriorated. The same applies to the sentix economic Index, where both the current situation and expectations are back in negative territory. After two consecutive rises, the Purchasing Managers’ Index for industry has also fallen again, though it remains above the 50-point growth threshold. The services index has fallen sharply and now lies below the 50-point threshold. The Economic Sentiment Indicator also declined, and the ZEW Economic Expectations Index continued its downward trend. According to toll statistics, truck mileage has also decreased.

Eurozone

Many leading indicators for the eurozone have also deteriorated. The Economic Sentiment Indicator fell sharply, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index also continued to decline. The OECD leading indicator is also pointing downwards again. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for industry, on the other hand, continued to improve, whereas the services index fell noticeably and now lies below the 50-point growth threshold. Although both the current assessment of the situation and expectations in the sentix economic index recovered slightly, they remain well below the zero line.

Global Economy

Global leading indicators are not showing a uniform trend. Whilst the Bundesbank’s leading indicator for the global economy is pointing downwards, the OECD leading indicator continues its upward trend. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for global manufacturing improved, as did the services index, following a sharp fall in the previous month. Both are above the growth threshold of 50 points. The sentix economic index has recovered, but the declines of the previous two months are still far from being made up for. The RWI container throughput index has recently fallen noticeably, whereas the Baltic Dry Index has risen significantly.